Gym and fitness studio financial projections
A studio lives or dies on three things: how many members join, how many leave, and how many the space can hold. StartupModel builds fitness studio projections in Excel around exactly those. You get a P&L, cash flow and balance sheet, a low / base / high scenario switch and a Checks sheet, built from your numbers. Full costs $349; Light costs $149.
It suits boutique studios, independent gyms, CrossFit boxes, and yoga and pilates studios that sell memberships.
Download the sample model and inspect every formula before you buy.
How the member base works
The model opens with members at start: the presale for a new studio, or the current base for one already trading. Each period:
- New members come from marketing (spend ÷ cost per lead × the share of leads that join) plus referrals and walk-ins.
- Cancellations are a monthly share of the opening base.
- Capacity caps the base. Joins above the cap are counted as lost to the capacity limit, the signal to add classes, space or a second site.
Annual models compound the monthly cancellation rate over twelve months and assume the year's new members join mid-year, so annual and monthly versions of the same studio agree closely but not to the dollar.
Revenue and costs
| Line | How it's modelled |
|---|---|
| Membership fees | Fee × average members; rises once a year with your price increase |
| Joining fees | Fee × members who actually join |
| Personal training | Members buying PT × sessions per month × price per session |
| Retail and drinks | Spend per member per month |
| Group-class instructors | Paid per class, with classes per week an input and wage growth |
| Trainer payouts | % of personal training revenue |
| Staff | Studio manager, front desk and sales, any other role you add |
| Rent, utilities, maintenance, insurance | Monthly inputs |
| Booking software and payment fees | % of revenue |
| Fit-out and equipment | Capital spending in month 1, depreciated over 7 years |
Members pay up front, so receivable days are zero.
The metrics a lender or partner will ask for
Members at year end, new members, cancellations, joins lost to capacity, capacity used, membership fees per month, revenue split, marketing cost per new member, gross margin, member lifetime value (fee × gross margin ÷ monthly cancellation rate), EBITDA margin and revenue per square foot.
Cancellation rate matters more than any other single input. A small change compounds every month, so flip the scenario switch and watch members and cash.
What you get
Full — $349: Dashboard with the scenario selector and membership metrics; Inputs; monthly detail for members, revenue, costs, fit-out, loan and equity; annual P&L, cash flow statement and balance sheet; headcount plan; Checks sheet.
Light — $149: Inputs, P&L with period detail and the metrics, Checks sheet. Upgrade to Full later by paying the difference.
Before release, every scenario and year is recomputed independently in plain Python and must match the workbook within $1. That covers the statements plus members, new members and joins lost to capacity. The Checks sheet must show no FAIL, and it stays in the file.
Sample
The sample is a new 4,000 sq ft studio with a 120-member presale: Full tier, three years of monthly detail, all three scenarios. Raise the cancellation rate, then follow it through members, revenue and the lowest cash point.
Download the sample model (.xlsx)
What the model doesn't do
- One membership tier and one price: no class packs, annual prepay discounts or freezes.
- No seasonality: January sign-ups and summer slowdowns are not modelled, and the cancellation rate is constant.
- Instructor cost does not change with membership; classes per week is an input.
- No equipment replacement within the horizon; maintenance is an operating cost.
Common mistakes in studio projections
- Ignoring cancellations. Growth without churn is a fantasy; every month some of the base leaves.
- No capacity limit. A studio cannot sell the 600th membership in a room that fits 450.
- Presale treated as permanent. Test what happens if half the presale members cancel in the first quarter.
- Fit-out in the first month's P&L. It is capital spending, depreciated.
- One scenario. Show the low case before the lender builds their own.
Questions
Does it work for a gym with day passes? The model is built around memberships. Day passes can be approximated through retail and drinks spend, but are not a separate line.
Can I model a second location? Not as a separate site. Joins lost to capacity show when a second site would be worth testing.
What if the model doesn't fit my studio? Write to us within 7 days and we refund the full amount.
See also: Financial projections for a bank loan · Startup costs and break-even · All custom financial models